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GMAT - Critical Reasoning - Test 5

in Critical Reasoning

Read the passage and choose the option that best answer the question.

1. It is not unusual to see the ball fall into a black slot on a roulette wheel four times in a row. But for it to fall five or six times in a row into the same color is very unusual. Therefore you can win money by waiting for a run of five of the same color and then betting against that color. 1.

If the roulette wheel in question is a fair wheel, which of the following observations or facts, if it were true, would best reveal a fallacy in the logic?

A. If there were a reliable way to win at roulette it would be well-known by now.
B. It is hard for a player to keep track of what went before for the time required.
C. The probability of getting a particular color decreases with the number of times the color has appeared.
D. The probability of getting a particular color is always the same no matter what has gone before.
E. A person who makes money this way once or twice, will carry on to lose that money after a few more times.

2. If A, then B. If B, then C. If C, then D. If all of the statements above are true, which of the following must also be true?

A. If D, then A.
B. If not B, then not C.
C. If not D, then not A.
D. If D, then E.
E. If not A, then not D.

3. Instead of blaming an airline accident on pilot error, investigators should find out why the error was made by analyzing airplane design, airline management, and pilot-training programs. For only then can changes be made to ensure that the same type of error does not recur and cause another accident. Which of the following is a presupposition of the argument above?

A. Pilot error is not a contributing factor in most airline accidents.
B. Airline companies themselves should be the agents who investigate airline accidents.
C. Stricter government regulation of airline companies will make air travel significantly safer.
D. Investigators of airline accidents should contribute to the prevention of future accidents.
E. Most pilots who make errors in flying will repeat their errors unless they are retrained.

4. Federal agricultural programs aimed at benefiting one group whose livelihood depends on farming often end up harming another such group. Which of the following statements provides support for the claim above? I. An effort to help feed-grain producers resulted in higher prices for their crops, but the higher prices decreased the profits of livestock producers. II. In order to reduce crop surpluses and increase prices, growers of certain crops were paid to leave a portion of their land idle, but the reduction was not achieved because improvements in efficiency resulted in higher production on the land in use. III. Many farm workers were put out of work when a program meant to raise the price of grain provided grain growers with an incentive to reduce production by giving them surplus grain from government reserves.

A. I, but not II and not III
B. II, but not I and not III
C. I and III, but not II
D. II and III, but not I
E. I, II and III

5. Some who favor putting governmental enterprises into private hands suggest that conservation objectives would in general be better served if private environmental groups were put in charge of operating and financing the national park system, which is now run by the government. Which of the following, assuming that it is a realistic possibility, argues most strongly against the suggestion above?

A. Those seeking to abolish all restrictions on exploiting the natural resources of the parks might join the private environmental groups as members and eventually take over their leadership.
B. Private environmental groups might not always agree on the best ways to achieve conservation objectives.
C. If they wished to extend the park system, the private environmental groups might have to seek contributions from major donors and the general public.
D. There might be competition among private environmental groups for control of certain park areas.
E. Some endangered species, such as the California condor, might die out despite the best efforts of the private environmental groups, even if those groups are not hampered by insufficient resources.

6. Extinction is a process that can depend on a variety of ecological, geographical, and physiological variables. These variables affect different species of organisms in different ways, and should, therefore, yield a random pattern of extinctions. However, the fossil record shows that extinction occurs in a surprisingly definite pattern, with many species vanishing at the same time. Which of the following, if true, forms the best basis for at least a partial explanation of the patterned extinctions revealed by the fossil record?

A. Major episodes of extinction can result from widespread environmental disturbances that affect numerous different species.
B. Certain extinction episodes selectively affect organisms with particular sets of characteristics unique to their species.
C. Some species become extinct because of accumulated gradual changes in their local environments.
D. In geologically recent times, for which there is no fossil record, human intervention has changed the pattern of extinctions.
E. Species that are widely dispersed are the least likely to become extinct.

7. There is a great deal of geographical variation in the frequency of many surgical procedures?up to tenfold variation per hundred thousand between different areas in the numbers of hysterectomies, prostatectomies , and tonsillectomies. To support a conclusion that much of the variation is due to unnecessary surgical procedures, it would be most important to establish which of the following?

A. A local board of review at each hospital examines the records of every operation to determine whether the surgical procedure was necessary.
B. The variation is unrelated to factors (other than the surgical procedures themselves) that influence the incidence of diseases for which surgery might be considered.
C. There are several categories of surgical procedure (other than hysterectomies, prostatectomies , and tonsillectomies) that are often performed unnecessarily.
D. For certain surgical procedures, it is difficult to determine after the operation whether the procedures were necessary or whether alternative treatment would have succeeded.
E. With respect to how often they are performed unnecessarily, hysterectomies, prostatectomies , and tonsillectomies are representative of surgical procedures in general.

8. Industrialists from the country Distopia were accused of promoting the Distopian intervention in the Arcadian civil war merely to insure that the industrialists' facilities in Arcadia made substantial profits during the war. Yet this cannot be the motive since, as the Distopians foresaw, Distopia's federal expenses for the intervention were eight billion dollars, whereas, during the war, profits from the Distopian industrialists' facilities in Arcadia totaled only four billion dollars. Which of the following, if true, exposes a serious flaw in the argument made in the second sentence above?

A. During the Arcadian war, many Distopian industrialists with facilities located in Arcadia experienced a significant rise in productivity in their facilities located in Distopia .
B. The largest proportion of Distopia's federal expenses is borne by those who receive no significant industrial profits.
C. Most Distopian industrialists' facilities located in Arcadia are expected to maintain the level of profits they achieved during the war.
D. Distopian industrialists' facilities in Arcadia made substantial profits before the events that triggered the civil war.
E. Many Distopians expressed concern over the suffering that Arcadians underwent during the civil war.

9. Recent audits revealed that BanqueCard , a credit service, has erred in calculating the interest it charges its clients. But BanqueCard's chief accountant reasoned that the profits that the company shows would remain unaffected by a revision of its clients' credit statements to correct its previous billing errors, since just as many clients had been overcharged as undercharged. Which of the following is a reasoning error that the accountant makes in concluding that correcting its clients' statements would leave BanqueCard's profits unaffected?

A. Relying on the reputation of BanqueCard as a trustworthy credit service to maintain the company's clientele after the error becomes widely known
B. Failing to establish that BanqueCard charges the same rates of interest for all of its clients
C. Overlooking the possibility that the amount by which BanqueCard's clients had been overcharged might be greater than the amount by which they had been undercharged
D. Assuming that the clients who had been overcharged by BanqueCard had not noticed the error in their credit bills
E. Presupposing that each one of BanqueCard's clients had either been overcharged or else had been undercharged by the billing error

10. Firms adopting ?profit-related-pay? (PRP) contracts pay wages at levels that vary with the firm's profits. In the metalworking industry last year, firms with PRP contracts in place showed productivity per worker on average 13 percent higher than that of their competitors who used more traditional contracts. If, on the basis of the evidence above, it is argued that PRP contracts increase worker productivity, which of the following, if true, would most seriously weaken that argument?

A. Results similar to those cited for the metalworking industry have been found in other industries where PRP contracts are used.
B. Under PRP contracts costs other than labor costs, such as plant, machinery, and energy, make up an increased proportion of the total cost of each unit of output.
C. Because introducing PRP contracts greatly changes individual workers' relationships to the firm, negotiating the introduction of PRP contracts is complex and time consuming.
D. Many firms in the metalworking industry have modernized production equipment in the last five years, and most of these introduced PRP contracts at the same time.
E. In firms in the metalworking industry where PRP contracts are in place, the average take-home pay is 15 percent higher than it is in those firms where workers have more traditional contracts.